Natalya Naumenko

Assistant Professor, Department of Economics at George Mason University

Publications

The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932-33, with Andrei Markevich and Nancy Qian

Accepted for publication at the Review of Economic Studies

We construct a novel panel dataset for interwar Soviet Union to study the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) during 1932-33 and document several facts: i) Ukraine produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine in Ukraine; ii) 1933 mortality in the Soviet Union was increasing in the pre-famine ethnic Ukrainian population share and iii) was unrelated to food productivity across regions; iv) this pattern exists even outside of Ukraine; v) migration restrictions exacerbated mortality; vi) actual and planned grain procurement were increasing and actual and planned grain retention (production minus procurement) were decreasing in the ethnic Ukrainian population share across regions. The results imply that anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy contributed to high Ukrainian famine mortality, and that this bias systematically targeted ethnic Ukrainians across the Soviet Union.

Accepted Manuscript: ReStud 

Working Paper: NBER Working Paper 29089

Popular press: NBER Digest Oct 2021; Der Spiegel; Big Questions podcast (in Russian); Hoshimov's Economics podcast (in Russian)

Replication files

The Political Economy of Famine: the Ukrainian Famine of 1933

The Journal of Economic History (2021) no. 81(1): 156-197

The 1933 Ukrainian famine killed as many as 2.6 million people out of a population of 32 million. Historians offer three main explanations: weather, economic policies, genocide. This paper documents that (1) available data do not support weather as the main explanation: 1931 and 1932 weather predicts harvest roughly equal to the 1924–1929 average; weather explains up to 8.1% of excess deaths. (2) Policies (collectivization of agriculture and the lack of favored industries) significantly increased famine mortality; collectivization explains up to 52% of excess deaths. (3) There is some evidence that ethnic Ukrainians and Germans were discriminated against. 

Paper: JEH

Appendix

Replication files

Response to Professor Tauger’s Comments

This is a response to Professor Tauger’s comments on my 2021 Journal of Economic History paper. Professor Tauger mostly comments on the paper’s Introduction, Background, and Weather sections, ignoring most of the statistical results. While the Background section has some oversimplifications, and I am grateful for the opportunity to correct them, Professor Tauger’s comments do not change the findings and conclusions of my paper. 

Econ Journal Watch (2023) no. 20(2): 304-313.

Work in Progress

Economic Consequences of the 1933 Soviet Famine

Using recently discovered archival data, this article studies the changes in the Soviet population and the urbanization patterns after the 1933 famine. It documents that, although most of the direct victims lived in the rural areas, the famine is associated with a persistent negative change in the urban population. In fact, the rural population gradually recovered while urban settlements in more affected areas became permanently smaller. The paper shows that these changes were not planned in the First Five-Year Plan (1928--1933), but that subsequent plans may have incorporated and exacerbated the differences in urbanization that occurred during the years of rural crisis. The paper argues that the shortage of labor during the crucial years of the rapid industrialization hindered the development of cities in areas stricken by the famine. Thus, the timing of the shock to population appears to be important. While established urban networks tend to recover from large temporary negative shocks, the lack of people during construction and rapid growth might have a permanent negative impact. 

Draft: PDF

Collectivization, the Industrialization Debate, and the First Five-Year Plans

Chapter 6 prepared for the Oxford Handbook of Post-Socialist Economies

Draft (currently being revised): PDF

The 1922 Soviet Famine, with Volha Charnysh and Andrei Markevich

Unintended Long-Term Consequences of Industrial Nuclear Explosions in the USSR, with Alexey Makarin